"In addition, McConnell said the hope is to also include spending cuts agreed upon by the White House and House Republicans. He said that is the key. Will the White House agree to enough cuts to pass the House."
So this is the key bit I was mistaken about. In addition to creating another catfood commission, the plan will include actual spending cuts that have already been agreed to in principle by the White House and the House Republicans.
So the main questions are whether those cuts will in fact be included in the Senate bill, and if so whether it can pass the House. I'm still hoping No on the first and Doesn't Matter on the second, but it seems we just don't know yet.